The Russian economy has proven more resilient than expected to the sanctions imposed by the West following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This conclusion was drawn by experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a report on the economic situation in Europe, published on Friday 28 April.
As follows from materials IMF, the Russian economy, after a sharp fall in the second quarter of 2022, managed to recover in the third and fourth quarters. Over the past year, the decline in production in the Russian Federation has fallen to 2.1%, and for the current year GDP growth is expected to reach 0.7%.
Sustainable oil exports
The IMF notes that improving trade performance and strong oil exports led to record profits in the oil and gas sector and supported the economy last year. “Russia’s ability to redirect commodity exports from countries that have imposed restrictions to countries that have not is supported by independently obtained and unofficial data,” the fund’s experts said. .
The report notes that it is too early to assess the impact of sanctions on Russian petroleum products. So far, there have been no sharp cuts in oil supplies, while the Russian fuel discount has increased.
The negative impact of Western sanctions
The IMF predicts that due to trade and financial sanctions, limited access to cutting-edge technology and a palpable loss of human capital, Russian production in 2027 will be 8% lower than pre-war forecasts. the war in Ukraine. Exact figures are not given in the report.
On April 11, the IMF updated its assessment of Russia’s economic growth. The fund now forecasts that Russia’s GDP will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024. the Russian Federation in 2023 will decrease by 0.8%, and in 2024 it will increase by 2.6%. The Bank of Russia expects the dynamics of GDP this year to increase from -1% to +1%.
Source: delfi
